Analisis Determinan Perdagangan Intra-Industri Indonesia di Kawasan ASEAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59024/jumek.v4i3.812Keywords:
ASEAN, Exchange Rate, FDI, GDP, Intra-Industry TradeAbstract
Intra-industry trade is an international trade phenomenon characterized by the simultaneous export and import of goods within the same industry. In the ASEAN region, Indonesia's intra-industry trade with its main trading partners, namely Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, reflects a moderate level of integration with a fluctuating trend. This study aims to analyze the effects of Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Indonesia's intra-industry trade with its four main ASEAN trading partners during the period 2005-2024. The method used is panel data regression analysis with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) estimated using the White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors (HCSE) method. The results indicate that exchange rate, GDP, and FDI simultaneously have a significant effect on Indonesia's intra-industry trade in the ASEAN region. Partially, GDP has a positive and significant effect, exchange rate has a negative and significant effect, and FDI has a positive and significant effect on intra-industry trade. These findings suggest that the economic size of trading partner countries is the dominant factor driving intra-industry trade intensity, while exchange rate volatility is proven to impede two-way trade. The policy implications of this study include the need for exchange rate stabilization, strengthening of manufacturing industry value-added oriented toward regional value chain integration, and the attraction of foreign investment that promotes the formation of vertical cross-border value chains to deepen Indonesia's trade integration in the ASEAN region.
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